Summary
Staying within a maximum global warming of 1.5 degrees requires an acceleration of the transition to a low carbon society. Current theory views such sustainability transitions as inevitably slow as they require interdependent changes throughout socio-technical systems. The observation that energy transition scenarios systematically underestimate the diffusion of key technologies challenges this view. Existing models that form the basis for energy transition scenarios do not include the positive feedbacks resulting from the interactions between civil society and energy transitions. Yet these interactions have been identified as important drivers and barriers of energy transitions, and as crucial in triggering the social tipping dynamics that can accelerate the energy transition. Social tipping dynamics in energy transitions occur when a small change or intervention has a large effect on emission reductions. To date, some examples of social tipping dynamics have been identified, but both a systematic understanding of the mechanisms underlying social tipping dynamics and an evaluation of their potential policy leverage is missing.
The overall objective of the FAST project is to explain and model social tipping dynamics and interventions in energy transitions.
This requires a model that explains how the social factors influencing sustainability transitions scale up to realize social tipping dynamics. To this end I will use a novel combination of bottom-up agent-based modelling and top-down diffusion modelling to capture the interactions in socio-technical systems that create tipping dynamics. This will bridge the qualitative field of sustainability transitions and the quantitative field of energy transitions modelling. A team consisting of the PI, 3 PhD students, a postdoc and a research assistant will conduct the proposed study over five years. This is the first study that systematically integrates social tipping dynamics in quantitative models of energy transitions.
The overall objective of the FAST project is to explain and model social tipping dynamics and interventions in energy transitions.
This requires a model that explains how the social factors influencing sustainability transitions scale up to realize social tipping dynamics. To this end I will use a novel combination of bottom-up agent-based modelling and top-down diffusion modelling to capture the interactions in socio-technical systems that create tipping dynamics. This will bridge the qualitative field of sustainability transitions and the quantitative field of energy transitions modelling. A team consisting of the PI, 3 PhD students, a postdoc and a research assistant will conduct the proposed study over five years. This is the first study that systematically integrates social tipping dynamics in quantitative models of energy transitions.
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| Web resources: | https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/101044076 |
| Start date: | 01-09-2022 |
| End date: | 31-08-2027 |
| Total budget - Public funding: | 1 999 995,00 Euro - 1 999 995,00 Euro |
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Original description
Staying within a maximum global warming of 1.5 degrees requires an acceleration of the transition to a low carbon society. Current theory views such sustainability transitions as inevitably slow as they require interdependent changes throughout socio-technical systems. The observation that energy transition scenarios systematically underestimate the diffusion of key technologies challenges this view. Existing models that form the basis for energy transition scenarios do not include the positive feedbacks resulting from the interactions between civil society and energy transitions. Yet these interactions have been identified as important drivers and barriers of energy transitions, and as crucial in triggering the social tipping dynamics that can accelerate the energy transition. Social tipping dynamics in energy transitions occur when a small change or intervention has a large effect on emission reductions. To date, some examples of social tipping dynamics have been identified, but both a systematic understanding of the mechanisms underlying social tipping dynamics and an evaluation of their potential policy leverage is missing.The overall objective of the FAST project is to explain and model social tipping dynamics and interventions in energy transitions.
This requires a model that explains how the social factors influencing sustainability transitions scale up to realize social tipping dynamics. To this end I will use a novel combination of bottom-up agent-based modelling and top-down diffusion modelling to capture the interactions in socio-technical systems that create tipping dynamics. This will bridge the qualitative field of sustainability transitions and the quantitative field of energy transitions modelling. A team consisting of the PI, 3 PhD students, a postdoc and a research assistant will conduct the proposed study over five years. This is the first study that systematically integrates social tipping dynamics in quantitative models of energy transitions.
Status
SIGNEDCall topic
ERC-2021-COGUpdate Date
09-02-2023
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