PICS | Prediction in Complex Systems

Summary
Prediction has traditionally been viewed as a hallmark of successful science by scientists and philosophers alike. In recent years however, interest in prediction has declined, as philosophers have shifted their focus to explicating scientific explanation, while scientists have settled on a standard notion of the term. Unfortunately, this displacement is premature, as it obscures conceptual issues that are becoming increasingly important in scientific practice. Perhaps the most important of these issues is why some sciences (e.g. economics, ecology and climate science) face disproportionate difficulties in making predictions that are sufficiently precise and accurate. This issue has important implications within and outside academia, as it affects our expectations and evaluations of scientific practice.

The overall aim of this project is to provide a new philosophical framework for understanding prediction, which takes into account the difficulties faced by these sciences. The project’s objectives will be to provide answers for three distinct but related questions: (i) what are the causes of the problem of prediction? (ii) what are some possible solutions to the problem of prediction? (iii) what are the implications for our conception of ‘prediction’?

This interdisciplinary Global Fellowship will be pursued at the University of Helsinki and the Australian National University. Training objectives include the creation of a novel conceptual framework, its application to current scientific practice (in economics and ecology) and training in dissemination strategies. The hosting institutions will also provide training in effective publication and collaboration strategies as well as mentoring and supervision. The action will provide networking opportunities for the researcher and host institutions. Special attention will be paid to the extra-academic dissemination of the project’s results.
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More information & hyperlinks
Web resources: https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/796910
Start date: 10-09-2018
End date: 09-09-2020
Total budget - Public funding: 172 852,80 Euro - 172 852,00 Euro
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Original description

Prediction has traditionally been viewed as a hallmark of successful science by scientists and philosophers alike. In recent years however, interest in prediction has declined, as philosophers have shifted their focus to explicating scientific explanation, while scientists have settled on a standard notion of the term. Unfortunately, this displacement is premature, as it obscures conceptual issues that are becoming increasingly important in scientific practice. Perhaps the most important of these issues is why some sciences (e.g. economics, ecology and climate science) face disproportionate difficulties in making predictions that are sufficiently precise and accurate. This issue has important implications within and outside academia, as it affects our expectations and evaluations of scientific practice.

The overall aim of this project is to provide a new philosophical framework for understanding prediction, which takes into account the difficulties faced by these sciences. The project’s objectives will be to provide answers for three distinct but related questions: (i) what are the causes of the problem of prediction? (ii) what are some possible solutions to the problem of prediction? (iii) what are the implications for our conception of ‘prediction’?

This interdisciplinary Global Fellowship will be pursued at the University of Helsinki and the Australian National University. Training objectives include the creation of a novel conceptual framework, its application to current scientific practice (in economics and ecology) and training in dissemination strategies. The hosting institutions will also provide training in effective publication and collaboration strategies as well as mentoring and supervision. The action will provide networking opportunities for the researcher and host institutions. Special attention will be paid to the extra-academic dissemination of the project’s results.

Status

CLOSED

Call topic

MSCA-IF-2017

Update Date

28-04-2024
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Horizon 2020
H2020-EU.1. EXCELLENT SCIENCE
H2020-EU.1.3. EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA)
H2020-EU.1.3.2. Nurturing excellence by means of cross-border and cross-sector mobility
H2020-MSCA-IF-2017
MSCA-IF-2017