DSS for analysis of ES provision at landscape scale under different prospective scenarios (scientific paper)

For each landscape, modifications and enhancements of the selected DSS are identified to make the DSS suitable for use in ALTERFOR. WP3 coordinators will prepare a detailed quality standard to be observed by the DSS experts in their work within each case study in cooperation with specialists active in WP1 (FMM descriptions), WP2 (framework conditions or prospective scenarios), WP4 (support to management behavioural assumptions), and ES assessments. The work includes the following main activities: - The climate change scenarios incorporated in the prospective scenarios from WP2 are implemented, and the resulting response with respect to gross increment, natural mortality etc. is validated. - ES stand level models and other FMM specifications from the harmonized definitions and descriptions delivered by T1.2 are implemented into the DSS. - Output of some ES is dependent not only on the extent of application of certain FMMs but also on where they are applied. For instance, fragmentation and connectivity of habitats is important for species preservation; or allocation relative to waterways for water quality. These and other landscape level ES aspects are operationalized and programmed into the DSS to yield quantitative assessments of ES provisioning in addition to non-spatially dependent parameters of ES provision. - The DSSs’ forest owner behavioural models are updated and validated. These models form the basis for how current FMMs are simulated in the landscape (extent and geographical allocation) and support the simulation of new FMM application at landscape scale. - Complete and validate the forest data for a spatially complete description of the case area consistent with DSS data requirements. This scheme applies to all cases except the ones in the Netherlands and Italy due to the relative size of forests and the focus on social and non-market values. Instead a “soft modelling” approach will be used where narrative material of likely development paths are produced supported by landscape analyses with GIS.