Ecosystem resilience across landscape

Combining and synthesizing existing data with novel field data and with remote sensing, RUG will parameterize different ecosystem configuration models, to capture the key differences in the organization of ecosystems along gradients of rainfall, soil fertility and temperature (with elevation as a proxy). Novel ecosystem configuration models will be used to assess differences among ecosystems in resilience in response to climatic extremes and land use change (forest clearing). These models capture the alternative flows that energy and nutrients can take between different compartments in ecosystems, with the option for different stable configurations, and regime shifts that change the ecosystem from one state to another. This will be done for the three main landscape zones of the river basins in the area (Fig. 1): the upland catchment areas, the midslope protected areas with migrant wildlife, and the lowland agricultural areas outside the protected areas. For each landscape zone, the dependence of ecosystem resilience (measured by the diversity of flora in relation to grazing pressure and fires) on key environmental drivers (rainfall, soil fertility, temperature) will be evaluated. This task takes a landscape-level perspective across the study area (Fig. 1) integrating specific mechanistic studies on the interplay of wildlife, livestock, water and fire. This sets the stage for the following tasks by paying special attention to the key spatial connections between landscape zones as well as how ecosystem service strategies may perturb or enhance ecosystem resilience.