ANALYSIS OF CHOICE OF LIVELIHOOD STRATEGIES IN RESPONSE TO ROAD DEVELOPMENT

The deliverable constitutes a working paper report (under task 5.3) applying a choice experiment to evaluate household preferences for livelihoods activity changes in response to reduced travel time to markets as a consequence of road development. A new road cutting across Northern Serengeti National Park was proposed in 2010, and the project was subsequently approved by the Tanzanian Government. The project has created considerable debate in the conservation and development literature. Arguments against the road include that improved infrastructure may increase pressure on natural resources through improved access to markets for various environmental goods incl. bushmeat as well as creating a barrier to wildlife migration and increased road kill. Proponents of the road, on the other hand, argue that improved road access may contribute to reducing poverty through alternative income sources as well as improving options for enforcement thereby reducing pressure on ecosystems. However, no evaluation has addressed how people plan to adjust their livelihood activities in response to reduced travel time to markets as an outcome of road upgrading. A discrete choice experiment will be designed to evaluate livelihood preference in scenarios with road construction or upgrading leading to various levels of reduced travel time. The choice experiment will reveal how households a priori expect to respond to the change. The effect of the road will be assessed in relation to households preference for livelihood activities (i.e. crop and livestock production, bushmeat hunting and employment in wage and business activities) under different incentives (i.e. provision of a loan, livestock and crop extension services). The analysis will be based on a subsample of the households included in the survey undertaken under task 5.1. Resulting data will be included in Deliverable 5.1. Analysis of the data constitutes Deliverable 5.11 and will be presented in the form of a working paper report providing a priori input for the design of adaptive measures reduce possible negative consequences of road development. The manuscript will be further developed into an article publishable in an international peer-reviewed scientific journal.