Quantitative modelling of land use

Much data is already available on human population density, settlements, wildlife and livestock densities, rainfall, primary biomass production, agricultural practices and land use from WP1. AfricanBioServices will also have access to collected microeconomic and cultural data from household surveys. Groups of experts in economic development, conservation, forestry, and agriculture have described the various competing land uses. The land cover/use will be updated by ILRI, DRSRS, NTNU and TAWIRI will map land cover of the Greater Serengeti Mara Ecosystem in 2015. The land cover/use will be updated by using the newly launched Landsat 8. Maps for 1975, 1995 and 2015 will be derived from the interpretation of satellite images to describe the development of the land cover from 1975 to 2015. Existing data on human population density, settlements, wildlife and livestock densities, rainfall, primary biomass production, agricultural practices, microeconomic and cultural data from household surveys are used to evaluate the most important drivers and related factors with land cover changes. A Bayesian belief network for land cover changes and projection will be developed based on consultation with stakeholders and the relative importance of land-use activities and other external factors. Part of the data gathering will be by developing and playing a board game with stakeholders on different levels simulating development of local communities. NTNU, NINA, in collaboration with UCPH will parameterize the results of different competing land-use scenarios on future land cover, welfare and ecosystem integrity. Scenarios of land use change between 2015 and 2030 will be developed based on forecasts of population growths and management strategies. We furthermore discuss with stakeholders the drivers and affinities for developing local communities in the direction of “Downward spiral”, “Green Haven”, “Globalisation” and “Local Sustainable Communities”.