EVALUATION OF WELFARE IMPLICATIONS OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICE AND MANAGEMENT CHANGE

The deliverable constitutes a report describing household welfare implications of future scenarios of change (task 5.1). NTNU, RUG and UCPH will develop, verify and train a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model to examine the interrelated cascading effects of change in parameters associated with future scenarios to evaluate household welfare implications. The BBN model will be developed base on scientifically derived evidence and interpretations of connections between different resources and processes driving changes in the GSME social and ecological system. The model will then be validated by breaking it down into individual processes and presenting these to communities across the GSME. Their perceptions of connections and input will then be applied to train and validate the model. Future scenarios will be developed and similarly verified by communities in the GSME and options for implementing these will be built into the model. The model will be implemented using as input spatial layers representing important variables in the model, and the consequences of different future scenarios on household welfare will be explored. Deliverable 5.4 will constitute a working paper report examining the consequences of different changes and management options for improving household welfare. The manuscript will subsequently be further developed into a publishable article in an international peer-reviewed scientific journal.