Quantitative report on the time structure of forced displacement and annotated dataset on forced displacement

It will provide evidence on the time sequence of migration from origin countries toneighbouring and transit countries which is oftentimes neglected in research despite being essential for accurately predicting migration flows Focusing on Africa we will combine displacement data provided by the IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix DTM with highfrequency information on conflict and climatic shocks in origin countries It will regress the changes in the number of displaced persons over a given period on simultaneous changes in the conflict and climate incidents to learn which time lag between the incidents and displacement has the most predictive power It will present our results along with the dataset underlying it which will also feed into the simulation of migration flows WP6